It appears that, in eight times, we’ll know the likely result of Oracle’s combat for PeopleSoft. 24 was its best and final offer. PeopleSoft’s board rejected it. Now this week Oracle is interesting directly to shareholders, stating that if 50% of PeopleSoft stocks aren’t tendered by November 19, Oracle will walk away. What goes on if Oracle walks? 24 disappears, accompanied by an increase over another a year as PeopleSoft’s business gradually improves. Regardless of PeopleSoft’s earlier promises to the in contrast, the threat of an Oracle takeover is a huge impediment to PeopleSoft permit sales.

I think that once the doubt about PeopleSoft’s future is resolved, you will see a better than expected increase in PeopleSoft permit sales. If Oracle away walks, however, there continues to be the open up matter of PeopleSoft’s lawsuit in California against Oracle for unfair business methods. I’m not an attorney, but my layman’s opinion is that PeopleSoft has a legitimate declare that Oracle deliberately set out to harm PeopleSoft’s business, which would be an “unfair” business practice in California.

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I base this opinion on evidence released in the Delaware lawsuit. See my post entitled, “Oracle private information released by court docket”, to see some examples. 1 billion, plus punitive damages, and the situation is scheduled to visit a trial before a jury in Oakland on January 10, 2005. Now, which will be interesting.

Be prepared to see more of the dark underbelly of software supplier sales tactics. What happens if Oracle is victorious? First, it will not be over on November 19, because Oracle requires an advantageous ruling in the Delaware case still. However, let’s assume that Oracle is prosperous there as well which Oracle gets control PeopleSoft.

My prediction is that the effect on PeopleSoft customers will be non-existent. More than anything, Oracle is purchasing the PeopleSoft’s customer foundation, not its software. Oracle might be aggressive, but it’s not stupid. Oracle shall not do anything to alienate PeopleSoft customers, even if it succeeds in nullifying PeopleSoft’s customer guarantee program.

I’m heading to venture out on a limb here and make a second prediction that Oracle will quickly spin from the PeopleSoft Business One and World products (previously J.D. Oracle will have zero fascination with keeping that platform. Selling off that products gives Oracle some money back on the deal and fund other acquisitions (e.g. BEA?) that is more proper to Oracle.

If Oracle were to sell off the JDE products, who would be the customer? I don’t think those products could stand independently as an unbiased company (i.e. JDE II). The potential buyer that makes most sense if you ask me is SSA Global. SSA has been gobbling up distressed ERP suppliers, and the JDE products would easily fit into that collection properly. If that scenario plays out, remember that you first noticed it here.